Calgary Real Estate Statistics for September 2020
Home sales climb along with market supply
Sales activity in September surged to 1,702 units, the most active September since 2014.
September's new listings increased over the month, but levels were comparable to the prior year. The market supply is down 12 percent compared to last year, with the increase in sales relative to new listings, preventing any monthly gains in inventory levels.
"The recent rise in new listings, combined with low lending rates and softness in prices, has helped support some of the recent upward trend in sales," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
"However, conditions vary significantly based on the price range and property type."
Supply adjustments relative to demand is causing the housing market to shift toward more balanced conditions. Currently, 3.7 months of supply represents the most balanced conditions observed in September for over five years. Helping support some of the more recent monthly gains in prices.
Benchmark prices for total residential have trended up for the past three months, resulting in September prices comparable to prices reported for the same time last year.
Despite some of the current improvements, the influence of COVID-19 is still present. Sales year-to-date persist at almost nine percent less than last year's levels, while city-wide prices stand over one percent lower than last year. Substantial risk also weighs on the housing market due to the future economic uncertainty and a struggling labour market.
HOUSING MARKET FACTS
With significant gains in the $400,000 - $600,000 range, September sales are the highest reported since 2014.
Easing new listings and improving sales ended in further declines in inventory levels, with the months of supply reducing to balanced territory. Recent improvements in the supply/demand balance have helped some uphill price shifts. The benchmark price, as of September, was almost one percent higher than last year.
However, year-over-year gains have been driven by the more affordable end of the market, as prices persist well under levels last years in both the city's West and City Centre zones.
With the monthly increases in new listings, this sector's sales improved in September. Although more moderate than both the row and detached sectors, which may be due to the significant pullback in inventory.
In September, inventory levels were almost 21 percent less than last year, the highest percentage drop in inventory amongst all property types. Supply shifts and increasing sales have begun to reduce the oversupply in this sector and ease prices' downward pressure.
September prices remained at almost two percent less than levels last year, yet prices have begun to improve in the South, South East and East zones of the city.
September sales were significantly higher than levels last year, with sales in this sector continuing to trend up for several months.
While not enough to negate the pullback during COVID-19 shutdown, row sales activity is four percent less than last year's levels. Sales growth could be due to the significant price adjustment that occurred in this sector.
Prices in this sector remain almost 17 percent less than past highs and have eased by seven percent compared to last year.
All other sectors have seen recent year-over-year gains in sales, yet this sector continues to trend in another direction. Sales year-to-date decreased by 16 percent, the most significant decrease among all property types.
At the same time, new listings continue to increase, causing further inventory gains—keeping the months of supply above seven months.
Some zones show price stabilization signs, yet overall, prices year-to-date eased by more than two percent, with a total adjustment from 2014 highs of more than 18 percent.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Sales year-over-year increased for the fourth consecutive month. As a result, city sales year-to-date total 1,055 units, a nine percent increase over the previous year.
New listings increased this month, yet the sales growth outpaced the new listings' additions, limiting any significant shift in monthly inventory levels. Inventory levels, however, were more than 20 percent less than levels last year. And the months of supply dropped to levels not seen since 2015. Prices remain below past highs, with tighter market conditions the past four months supporting several months of price growth, and September price levels almost one percent higher than last year. These price gains were enough to cause levels year-to-date to stabilize compared to the previous year.
Reductions in new listings limited sales growth for September compared to August. Yet, September sales remained higher than last year and contributed to almost a nine percent increase year-to-date.
Eased inventories and increasing sales have kept the months of supply below four months, the lowest seen since 2014. Tighter market conditions have supported an uphill trend in prices over the past three months. The recent price increases translated into gains year-over-year for September yet were not enough to offset earlier pullbacks, as prices year-to-date remain almost two percent less than levels last year.
September sales continued to improve from the low levels reported earlier in the year and last September.
Recent improvements, however, were not enough to offset earlier pullbacks. Sales remain three percent less than levels last year, although it could be due to reduced inventory in the market.
Reductions in supply relative to demand have caused the months of supply to decrease to three months. The tighter market conditions have caused prices to trend up over the past four months. Yet, both September and prices year-to-date remain less than the previous year's levels.