2021 Calgary Real Estate Board Forecast
2021 CREB Real Estate Forecast
2020 was a challenging year for many with record-high unemployment rates and significant job losses due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Surprisingly, the housing market across the country significantly rebounded in the second half of the year.
Calgary, in no way, hit record-high sales or prices in the third or fourth quarters, however; it still posted some of the strongest sales relative to the past five years, nearly enough to offset the initial losses recorded during the initial shutdown caused by the pandemic.
“It is expected some of the momentum recorded at the end of 2020 will continue into 2021 fueled by exceptionally low lending rates and pent-up demand” said Ann-marie Laurie, CREB Chief Economist. “
“While sales are expected to rise by nearly five percent on an annual basis in 2021, persistent economic challenges are expected to prevent stronger growth in our housing market
The primary reason that the Calgary housing market returned to a ‘more balanced condition’ at the end of 2020 was due to the reduction in supply relative to the sales. The pullback in new listings relative to the sales activity resulted in the area's inventory levels dropping to the lowest levels seen in the past several years.
As we move into 2021 we are anticipating the rise in new listings. With the concerns of spreading COVID-19 easing, we could start to see the many homeowners who delayed listing their homes in 2020 come onto the market. Besides, the unprecedented unemployment rates could also weigh on some existing homeowners who may need to sell their homes.
Supply growth is expected to offset some of the gains in sales. This will push our market to the “upper bounds” of the balanced conditions thus slowing the price recovery. The 2021 annual prices are forecasted to improve by over one percent.
Despite citywide gains, we anticipate persistent variation between the lower and upper ends of the market, as well as between different product types.
Throughout 2021 the conditions are expected to remain tight for the lower-priced and min-range homes across Calgary. This will likely result in stronger price gains. However, there may be a slight impact on price recovery in the upper end of the market. This will be caused from the lack of “job growth” for the higher paid professional positions throughout our city.
“This year has been filled with twists and turns all over the world. The Calgary housing market was no exception,” said Alan Tennant, CREB President and CEO.
“However, our local REALTORS continued to serve at a high level by connecting homebuyers and sellers through this difficult period in a safe and timely manner.”
2021 CREB FORECAST SUMMARY
- Housing markets across the country significantly rebounded in the second half of 2020.
- Calgary posted some of the strongest sales relative to the past five years, nearly enough to offset the initial losses recorded during the initial shutdown caused by the pandemic.
- 2020 year end momentum expected to roll over into 2021. This will be fuelled by exceptionally low lending rates and pent-up demand.
- The primary reason the Calgary housing market returned to a “more balanced condition” at the end of 2020 was due to the reduction in supply relative to sales.
- Homeowners who delayed listing in 2020 are anticipated to list in 2021. Also the high unemployment rates could force existing homeowners to sell.
- 2021 annual housing prices are forecasted to improve by over one per cent.
- Persistent variation between the lower and upper ends of the market and product types.
- Lower-priced and mid-range homes remain tight, resulting in stronger price gains.
- Lack of job growth for higher-paid professional positions could result in persistent imbalances in the higher price ranges, impacting price recovery in the upper end of the market.